And around the Net today, here's an indication of just how bitterly this high-def format war is being fought (and how desperate the HD-DVD camp is becoming in battling Blu-ray Disc). The Wall Street Journal today has a story on how the European Union's European Commission is investigating the HD format war. Specifically, Microsoft and Toshiba have asked the EU to investigate the Blu-ray camp for anti-trust violations (a tactic they've tried unsuccessfully here in the U.S. in the past as well). Here's the relevant text from the story: "The HD DVD camp has been lobbying the commission to draw attention to Blu-ray's tactics in the movie capital in a bid to force more studios to put their product on HD DVD, according to people familiar with the situation." In other words, the HD-DVD camp can't seem to win this war based on consumer sales alone, even after slashing their hardware prices, so now they're trying other measures to try to force the many Blu-ray exclusive Hollywood studios to support their format too.
This is what you need to know: The Christmas shopping season this year is almost certainly going to make or break HD-DVD. The HD-DVD camp knows this as well as anyone. (We suspect that this is one of the reasons Warner has delayed their TotalHD combo plans until early next year - after the holidays to see how things play out.) The HD-DVD camp's media rhetoric seems to have shifted dramatically in recent months from how they're going to win to how they're going to survive. They must know that if software sales trends continue the way they have so far this year in favor of Blu-ray, many other retailers are going to follow Blockbuster in favoring that format alone. So the HD-DVD camp is doing everything they can just to stay in the game, from additional hardware price cuts, to announcements like "HD-DVD gets 1000 movies from Amazon" (except not really because they haven't been made yet and the deal - according to Amazon - is non-exclusive and open to Blu-ray as well) and on and on. But here is the reality: According to Tom Adams, president of Adams Media (from the WSJ story), 105,000 stand-alone Blu-ray players have sold to date compared to about 150,000 HD-DVD players. However, 1.5 million PlayStation 3s are in the hands of consumers (which can all play Blu-ray movies) compared to 160,000 who have purchased HD-DVD add-on drives for the Xbox 360. So the market right now is roughly 1.6 million Blu-ray capable machines compared to 310,000 HD-DVD machines. Even if only a small fraction of PS3 owners are watching movies (and given the 2 or 3 to 1 Blu-ray software sales edge despite the smaller number of stand-alone Blu-ray machines in the market, at least some MUST be), there's still no contest. Compounding the HD-DVD camp's problems, their stand-alone hardware sales forecasts are being downgraded even despite dramatic hardware price cuts, while Blu-ray stand-alone hardware prices are slowly but steadily dropping too. In other words, price is the only advantage the HD-DVD camp has left... and by this time next year that advantage is likely to largely evaporate. (Though we wouldn't be shocked to see Toshiba cut their player prices to $199 or even lower for the holidays in a last ditch attempt to move large numbers of units.)
What all this means to you, is that Blu-ray is rapidly becoming the clear choice. In our opinion, there's just no chance that HD-DVD is going to win this format war, and the HD-DVD camp's increasingly desperate moves now should make that obvious to all. With Blu-ray hardware prices dropping, and with Fox and MGM about to start adding their catalog titles to the
BD exclusive title slate of Disney, Sony, Lionsgate and now Anchor Bay/Starz (not to mention all the great
BD titles coming from Warner and Paramount), if you've been thinking about getting into high-def discs, now's a great time to jump in with Blu-ray. And if you'd rather wait a little longer for lower prices and greater hardware and software selection... there's still nothing wrong with existing DVD in the meantime. Regardless, we've said from the very beginning that this HD format war wasn't going to be good for anyone. But the writing seems to be on the wall at this point and, with a little luck, we'll see the last gasps of this skirmish play out by Christmas. At this rate, the CES convention in January 2008 is likely to be VERY interesting indeed.
Stay tuned...
Bill Hunt, Editor
The Digital Bits
billhunt@thedigitalbits.com